Anyone that knows me will say that I am an eternal optimist. It really isn’t difficult for me to find the positives in most situations. As it relates to real estate, it should come as no surprise that I remain bullish on the Toronto housing market in the short, medium, and long-term. 

At our sales meetings, we often refer to a chart that outlines the growth in average housing prices across the GTA dating back to 1976. It’s fascinating to see the trajectory of housing values over nearly a half century. It also serves as an important reminder of the long-term stability of real estate values. Yes, there are ups and downs along the way, but the long-term trend cannot be denied.  

In keeping with that optimistic spirit, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board published the housing statistics for October this morning, and I think there are a lot of positives to take away. Certainly, sales are down, but it’s interesting to see the short-term price stability following a five-month decline from March through July. Since that time, average sales prices have held and trended slightly upwards for three consecutive months. 

Furthermore, at month’s end, we were at approximately 2.6 months of inventory. Historically, we define a seller’s market as a 0 – 4 month supply. So, we have never really entered buyer’s market territory, despite what one may read in the news. There has simply not been an increase in new listings to add meaningful downward pressure on prices, beyond what we experienced with the rate hikes. 

None of us know where this market is going to go, including the economists. We can only know where we are and where we’ve been. And looking back, one word keeps jumping out in my mind: Resilience. Think about what the Toronto real estate market has had to endure…qualifying rates, double property taxes, non-resident speculation taxes, a pandemic. In every case, Toronto has come out of it. 

So, I keep wondering, are we going to be looking back in the short/medium term and think, “Wow, there were some real opportunities for buyers.” I think that will be the case. If in December, we get 0 or a 25 basis points increase, that will send a clear signal to the market that now is the time to get back in.  

I would encourage anyone reading this to reach out to me at 416 723-2383 or contact a member of the Harvey Kalles sales team. We will be happy to provide clarity around what’s happening within the current real estate environment. Harvey Kalles Real Estate has been in business since 1957 and we bring a wealth of experience to fluctuating markets.