A few days ago, a friend told me he was hoping for a rate cut. He is thinking about a move, but he wants to wait until borrowing gets cheaper. I hear a version of this conversation almost every week, and I understand the instinct. But I also think this deserves a closer look, because I believe many people waiting for a rate cut are watching the wrong signal.
Let’s start with where rates are. Today, you can arrange a five-year fixed mortgage for under 4.5%, and a three-year term for around 4%. Last month, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%, with its next announcement scheduled for September 2. Are these rates high? Only if your benchmark is the pandemic, when five-year money could be had for 1.9%.
I remember mortgage rates in the teens. I remember when rates in the 7% range were considered attractive, and we called those “good years.” By almost any historical measure, this is a normal rate market, and normal rate markets have carried strong, healthy housing activity many times before.
So, if money is reasonable, why are many buyers on the sidelines? The answer comes down to certainty, not cost. Today’s lenders offer variable rates below the fixed alternatives, yet most borrowers choose to pay more for a fixed term. So, buyers are not actually waiting for cheaper money. They are already paying a premium for predictability. What the market is missing is not affordability. It is conviction.
Meanwhile, the market is quietly changing. In June, sales rose more than 9% from a year earlier, and the supply of homes available for sale has been shrinking month after month. Prices have softened, selection remains excellent, and competition is still limited. Every one of those conditions favours a buyer, and every one of them is temporary.
Certainty and opportunity rarely arrive in the same month.
The moment the headlines turn positive, the moment the Bank of Canada delivers the cut that validates your patience, it validates everyone else's patience, too. Sellers read those headlines the same morning you do. The buyers who look smart in hindsight are rarely the ones that waited for confirmation. They are the ones who recognized that a balanced market, motivated sellers, and reasonable financing together are the confirmation.
None of this is an argument for rushing. Real estate rewards preparation, not urgency. My advice is simple. Stop watching the Bank of Canada and start watching inventory. The number of homes available for sale tells you more about your negotiating position than any rate announcement ever will. When supply shrinks while sales rise, your leverage begins to deteriorate.
If a move makes sense for your family, your work, or your stage of life, the conditions for success are here now. Rates are normal. Selection is strong. And the signal you have been waiting for may have already arrived.